Main message of the video (The F type is one of the fastest depreciating cars he's looked at) is depressing! Fortunately, it's wrong. While I don't have a problem with his using basic regression/data point analysis, his conclusion is skewed by what happens with these cars from "new" to the first year of being "used". His model doesn't factor in the reality that the "new" cars are not sold at sticker, but in fact at abnormally large discount (commonly $25,000+) so they appear to lose a lot of value the first year. This first year abnormality skews the results when he averages the depreciation over the years and or years and miles....

More importantly, I think what the OP wants to know is when will we as owners of these cars decide that the market value is so low that is not "worth it" to us to sell, at which point the prices stop plummeting as supply dries up. I may be there with my 2015 model. Lately I've been thinking of getting something more "supercar" as my primary toy, and considered selling my F type. But Kelly Blue Book says its worth about $38,000 in trade/$44K private party, at which point I say no thanks, I'll keep it as a 2nd or 3rd toy at this point than sell at that price. From what I'm hearing, others of you are at or nearing that point as well.

With new car prices at crazy highs (average transaction price in 2019 was almost $38,000 last I looked), it is hard to imagine selling a mint condition low mileage F type R at below $25,000- $30,000 unless we have a major economic event. Just my 2 cents. And I will never have any regrets buying my Jag - F type ownership is is pure automotive joy.

 

I agree with your take in the point of the post - because it’s hard to guess or estimate, I simply collected as much data as I could when researching the car. I did new car pricing analysis and looked at many - many used versions. Not everyone is as patient but from deciding to explore buying one to actually having it was about 22 months. I had plenty of stuff to drive so it wasn’t a “need” item and I’m glad things worked out as they did. I was open to buying a 2015-2018 (although I would have had to wait A little for an 2018 at the time). Bottom line was that I was watching seasonal prices and trends and happened to find exactly what I would have ordered - just at a significant discount. I was fortunate; however, good luck is a function of preparation and opportunity. Also important to point out the “outliers” - the market for my car was between $62 and $68k when I purchased. I paid $54 and the car is as close to flawless as you’ll find and CPO - just found a seller who had a bunch of cars and wasn’t trying to have it listed forever. I actually tried to buy the same car a year prior from another owner but gave up - dude was weird and difficult to deal with. Either way, I bought it 11 months later with 800 more miles on it and spent $8000 less than I offered the previous year. Obviously I hope prices stabilize but it’s not like an accounting problem where their value just hits $0 and I can only use it as a storage shed. In the meantime, I will continue to wake up my neighbors at 5:30am everyday it doesn’t rain and enjoy driving to work with the windows down and without the need for a radio.

 

I'm still a newbie to Jag, but I consider it a sunk cost. The money is spent, the car is in the garage and I can't wipe the smile off my face. What the market is on these cars is no longer my concern. If i were looking for an investment vehicle, i would have shoved the money into my 401k. Just my two cents.

 

I'm even more a newbie to Jag than you (still looking for mine), but I think this is the key. Investment vehicles are a very specific type of thing, and they're fairly easy to identify. Low-run, exclusive, maybe an invite process to buy one from the factory, something compelling that makes it both desirable and very difficult to obtain. The McLaren F1 has appreciated about 2000% since new, as a good example, but they're insanely rare, and were extremely valuable from the outset. Looking at other more common vehicles often seen as "investments", the best example I can think of would be a 90's Toyota Supra. Good unmolested examples are still fetching in the $40k to $60k range, which is right around MSRP when they were new. You factor in depreciation though, and they've still lost about 50% value. Which is fantastic for a mass-market Japanese car, but still a very terrible investment, since if you actually drove the thing over the last 20 years it's not worth anywhere near that amount. You basically lost half your value for buying it and letting it take up space in your garage. I think if anyone's purchasing cars like the F-Type for any reason other than the thrill of ownership, I'd take their investment advice with a grain of salt.

 

And as a Gen 2 and 3 (not so much 4) Supra lover when they were new, I can assure you no one bought those cars as investments. They were not very popular cars which is why they were cancelled. Supra populaity was less than an F-Type today, but with crappy build quality from a run of the mill brand and around average performance. Its is only 30 years later that the Fast and Furious tuner scene brought them to any kind recognizable status.

 

I'm the maker of the video and you are of course right to point out that the average depreciation rate is highly skewed. The average depreciation rate for only the used cars is, for example, $8,103, which is a lot lower than the average depreciation rate for the full market. Nevertheless, it would be more correct to use the actual selling prices. But as far as i'm aware, those aren't available.