Gas Price Conundrum
#21
04-15-2020, 08:04 AM
Senior Member
#22
04-15-2020, 08:31 AM
Veteran Member
#23
04-15-2020, 08:55 AM
Veteran Member
#24
04-15-2020, 08:57 AM
Veteran Member
#25
04-15-2020, 09:00 AM
Veteran Member
Ethanol is beyond deadly to cars. Sure, hardened seals were used. Sure, new materials resist it better.Sure, don't let it sit and separate. You still can't fix lubrication issue, where ethanol-containing gasoline acts as degreaser inside your combustion chambers.
#26
04-20-2020, 05:09 AM
Oil is already negatively priced in parts of the US and Canada. Meaning, producers have to pay to take it away.
Globally, production has to slow by about 50M barrels/day in 2-4 weeks, because global storage will be full for this first time in history. We used to consume 100M/day, globally.
At that point it is very hard to make the argument that above ground oil has value, a price greater than zero, when it is worth more to a producer to leave it in the ground. IMO the market knows this, because it couldn't be more obvious, and global prices are quickly working their way to near $0, if not lower.
The reason pump prices don't move as much is because politicans use lower oil prices as a money grab and raise gas taxes to exploit the crises. But soon, even the limitless appetite of govts will fall to the late realization that we are going to have to dump 50M barrels/day into the ocean unless capitalism is attempted for this first time. Sadly, that won't happen, and producers will have no choice but to increase production.
Globally, production has to slow by about 50M barrels/day in 2-4 weeks, because global storage will be full for this first time in history. We used to consume 100M/day, globally.
At that point it is very hard to make the argument that above ground oil has value, a price greater than zero, when it is worth more to a producer to leave it in the ground. IMO the market knows this, because it couldn't be more obvious, and global prices are quickly working their way to near $0, if not lower.
The reason pump prices don't move as much is because politicans use lower oil prices as a money grab and raise gas taxes to exploit the crises. But soon, even the limitless appetite of govts will fall to the late realization that we are going to have to dump 50M barrels/day into the ocean unless capitalism is attempted for this first time. Sadly, that won't happen, and producers will have no choice but to increase production.
Your move, genius govt central planners.
#27
04-20-2020, 08:37 AM
The most interesting part of the forced decimation of oil markets is that Wall Street itself is cracking.
Consider: Bloomberg Oil Index is down 36%.
Wall Street ETF symbol SCO returns a 2x inverse to the Bloomberg Oil Index, but it is only up 12%, not the 75% owed. The financial markets no longer have anywhere near enough money to pay share holders.
Consider: Bloomberg Oil Index is down 36%.
Wall Street ETF symbol SCO returns a 2x inverse to the Bloomberg Oil Index, but it is only up 12%, not the 75% owed. The financial markets no longer have anywhere near enough money to pay share holders.
Last edited by RacerX; 04-20-2020 at 08:41 AM.
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forterieontariocanada (04-20-2020)
#29
04-20-2020, 11:35 AM
So the oil component of gasoline price will approach zero, or even go negative, as producers desperately try to avoid dumping the current 30 million barrels/1.65 billion gallons of excess crude, per day, on the dome of the US Capitol building. But governments, utterly ignorant of how markets operate, will keep gas prices artificially high by increasing taxation thus foiling the market's solution to their own Biblical catastrophe, potentially creating a human ELE (extinction level event).
Cancer kills its host.
Last edited by RacerX; 04-20-2020 at 11:55 AM.
#30
04-20-2020, 02:54 PM
Veteran Member
Has anyone considered that oil producers can simply close the wellhead valves and turn off the cricket pumps. Oil's not getting dumped anywhere. I, for one, am hoping that this event will create a paradigm shift when companies determine that they can be just as efficient by letting 80% of their workforce continue working remotely. In the DC area, for the first time in 50 years, we can now see stars in the sky and for the first time in 30 years, it no longer takes 90 minutes to crawl 15 miles. I am not looking forward to the return of traffic congestion and pollution.
#31
04-20-2020, 03:21 PM
#32
04-20-2020, 03:39 PM
Senior Member
Has anyone considered that oil producers can simply close the wellhead valves and turn off the cricket pumps. Oil's not getting dumped anywhere. I, for one, am hoping that this event will create a paradigm shift when companies determine that they can be just as efficient by letting 80% of their workforce continue working remotely. In the DC area, for the first time in 50 years, we can now see stars in the sky and for the first time in 30 years, it no longer takes 90 minutes to crawl 15 miles. I am not looking forward to the return of traffic congestion and pollution.
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#33
04-20-2020, 04:15 PM
Has anyone considered that oil producers can simply close the wellhead valves and turn off the cricket pumps. Oil's not getting dumped anywhere. I, for one, am hoping that this event will create a paradigm shift when companies determine that they can be just as efficient by letting 80% of their workforce continue working remotely. In the DC area, for the first time in 50 years, we can now see stars in the sky and for the first time in 30 years, it no longer takes 90 minutes to crawl 15 miles. I am not looking forward to the return of traffic congestion and pollution.
The US gov got involved in hard OPEC deal making. They shrewdly negotiated a 10M brl/day cut starting in May, while facing at the time a 30M brl/day overage (now, perhaps 40-50M/day). Its called basic subtraction, and none of them could do it.
So I can think of two metaphors that kind of describe the catastrophe we have caused.
One is musical chairs. The people circling the chairs are taking oil delivery, the chairs are places to put the oil. Today, we ran out of chairs. Everyone saw it coming.
Another metaphor might be leading 20 internationally-owned cows to slaughter. Along the way, we realize that there is a huge supply glut of meat, so we ask the cows, which ten of you would like to commit suicide? None moo.
Last edited by RacerX; 04-20-2020 at 04:18 PM.
#34
04-20-2020, 06:38 PM
Banned
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forterieontariocanada (04-20-2020)
#36
04-23-2020, 12:42 AM
Last edited by RacerX; 04-23-2020 at 12:45 AM.
#38
04-23-2020, 12:32 PM
#39
04-23-2020, 01:02 PM
Senior Member
Great quote, but I meant practically. You don't believe OPEC is smart? You don't think MBS knows exactly what he's doing? He just doesn't care how it affects the rest of the globe. I've been in the GCC region long enough to know that none of the true players of OPEC care about anything other than keeping their coffers full. Hell, MBS just played Russian Roulette with Russia.
#40
04-23-2020, 01:31 PM
Great quote, but I meant practically. You don't believe OPEC is smart? You don't think MBS knows exactly what he's doing? He just doesn't care how it affects the rest of the globe. I've been in the GCC region long enough to know that none of the true players of OPEC care about anything other than keeping their coffers full. Hell, MBS just played Russian Roulette with Russia.
Last edited by RacerX; 04-23-2020 at 01:34 PM.