F-Type ( X152 ) 2014 - Onwards
Sponsored by:
Sponsored by:

OT: Economist article re: EV adoption speeding up w/something for wealthy petrolheads

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
  #1  
Old 02-27-2020, 12:37 PM
Uncle Fishbits's Avatar
Veteran Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Tiburon, CA
Posts: 2,770
Received 714 Likes on 408 Posts
Default OT: Economist article re: EV adoption speeding up w/something for wealthy petrolheads

https://worldin.economist.com/articl...percars-speeds
paywall, in case:
The drive for electric supercars speeds up. Super-rich petrolheads will be able to go electric.

BUSINESS ELECTRIFICATION IS THE preoccupation of the car industry. At the pricier end of the market, once the preserve of Tesla, models are now available from Audi, Jaguar, Mercedes and Porsche. Drivers after a cheaper option also have more choice. Volkswagen has ambitious plans to electrify its cars and in 2019 launched the ID.3 hatchback, the first of a range of vehicles that will eventually sell in their millions. In 2020 electric cars that serve a far more rarefied market will also go on sale: wildly expensive hypercars with batteries that propel them at outrageous speeds. Manufacturers such as Ferrari (whose chairman sits on the board of The Economist’s parent company) and McLaren have ­embraced hybrid powertrains, which couple internal combustion and batteries, not for green reasons but because they can propel cars even faster than petrol engines alone. The hybrid SF90 Stradale, which goes on sale in 2020, will be Ferrari’s most powerful road car, with a top speed in excess of 210mph (340kph). But with a rumoured price of $500,000, it barely qualifies as a true hypercar, prices of which start in the millions. Several new entrants think the hyper-­rich will be willing to pay even bigger money for pure battery power. The most prominent new firms are taking oddly similar approaches. Each uses a recognisable name from yesteryear. The flying-swan emblem of Hispano Suiza, which last made limousines in the 1940s to rival Rolls-Royce, is back on a bonnet. Automobili Pininfarina revives the name of the firm that designed the bodywork for Ferrari’s most beautiful cars. Piëch Automotive, which hopes to trade on the name of a notoriously grumpy former boss of Volkswagen who died in 2019, seems a more hopeful appeal to nostalgic petrolheads. Other existing specialist carmakers are also entering what promises to be a lucrative business. Supercar firms are fantastically profitable, and the most profitable part of the supercar business is exclusive models made in small production runs for loyal customers. That’s why Lotus—a British firm now in the hands of Geely, a Chinese carmaker—plans to launch the Evija in 2020. Rimac, a Croatian firm partly owned by Porsche, is preparing to follow up its absurdly swift Concept One, of which it made eight examples, with the unimaginatively named but no less rapid Concept Two. The idea of making eye-wateringly expensive cars in very limited numbers to attract wealthy collectors is borrowed from the established supercar firms. In 2019 Ferrari unveiled two models, the Monza SP-1 and SP-2, inspired by racing cars from its past. Only 500 of each will be made, costing around $1.7m each. But the new carmakers have even more limited ambitions in terms of production, if not price. Pininfarina will make only 150 of its Battista and charge over $2m. Drivers of a Hispano Suiza Carmen are even less likely to meet another one. Just 19 examples will reside in the climate-controlled garages of sheikhs or oligarchs with $1.7m to spare. Rimac plans to make around 150 cars and Lotus is aiming for 130. Both hope to relieve customers of $2m a time. Existing supercar firms will not worry too much. All are contemplating pure electric cars of their own. And the sort of person who buys a $2m hypercar is a collector who will almost certainly already own several expensive cars. Adding a pure EV to the fleet will not make them less likely to buy another high-performance, low-volume hypercar from McLaren or Aston Martin. How many of these firms will survive? Small hypercar-makers packing internal-combustion engines have appeared and disappeared with alarming frequency in the past. Some, such as Pagani and Koenigsegg, are still going but the likes of Lotec, Cizeta-Moroder and Laraki have vanished. Without the capital and expertise of a big firm behind them, the future for some of the newcomers could be as silent as the cars they are making.
 
  #2  
Old 02-27-2020, 02:00 PM
RacerX's Avatar
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Tampa, Florida
Posts: 857
Received 226 Likes on 165 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by Uncle Fishbits
I'm sure there is some place for EVs in the future, but there are still lots of elephants in the room IMO.
  • The US grid browns out when we sneeze even without a 600,000W EV or two in every driveway.
  • Subsidizing electric utilities for residential dwellings makes sense, since most people benefit by living in homes. EVs currently scarf this subsidity to appear cheaper, but how long will home owners put up with EV users driving up residential electric utility bills?
  • Lithium Ion batteries currently enjoy economies of scale from disposable applications, primarily phones and laptops. A semi-permanent business use case has never been market tested and EVs are now only coming off warranty in small numbers. More Ford F150s sell in two months than every Tesla ever sold. We really have no idea if Li-Ion is a viable auto technology. My answer is, no way, because the compounding of time-bound capacity loss essentially limits Li-Ion use to short design life applications, making it a lot more expensive than perceived.
  • CO2 makes green things green. The recent switch in environmentalist focus to improving human comfort is something new in my lifetime, and could be less compelling to less me-focused green movements in the future.
  • Manufacturers are jumping in because EV build costs appear very low. That is no guaranty of profit. Teslas are strangely complex and spaghettified. The industry mantra used to be, "its only software." Now, thats become the punch line. Software labor has slowly mushroomed to a near all-consuming 90% cost element in the tech industry.
  • We live in prosperity but history shows when prices spike upward (think cars suddenly selling for home prices) the end of that trend is near. Will EVs sell in a depressed market where prices must halve or more to survive demand destruction?
Without time testing, EVs may amount to nothing, as has been the case for each fit and start since Porsche debuted the first all-electic line-up in 1908.
​​​
 
The following 2 users liked this post by RacerX:
Jagged Wire (02-28-2020), Uncle Fishbits (02-28-2020)
  #3  
Old 02-28-2020, 04:15 PM
Uncle Fishbits's Avatar
Veteran Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Tiburon, CA
Posts: 2,770
Received 714 Likes on 408 Posts
Default

SUPERB commentary. In CA, the grid is clean and can handle it, so we're a bit of an outlier.

Here's an old Economist article that suggests we're still problematic with EVs charging off coal grids in most parts of the country. This was 2014, but not much changes with infrastructure....
https://www.economist.com/science-an...aner-than-what



 
  #4  
Old 02-28-2020, 07:41 PM
RacerX's Avatar
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Tampa, Florida
Posts: 857
Received 226 Likes on 165 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by Uncle Fishbits
SUPERB commentary. In CA, the grid is clean and can handle it, so we're a bit of an outlier.

Here's an old Economist article that suggests we're still problematic with EVs charging off coal grids in most parts of the country. This was 2014, but not much changes with infrastructure....
https://www.economist.com/science-an...aner-than-what
Interesting chart.
There are so many interwined goals and claims involved that need clarification, a few:
1. Are we trying to save ourselves or "the environment?" I still don't know. I can see a reasonable argument for both. Right now when I hear things like "too much CO2 and global warming" I think, you know, if I were a green plant I'd be pretty excited about that.

2. Electricity is generally treated as commodity, it's all the same, so squeezing the balloon here bulges bulges it over there. The key test for treatment as a commodity being, fungibility. So I don't think the chart maker's grid distinctions are valid, we should analyze it as a whole.

3. The EPA seems confused. On one hand, we are outlawing incandesant lightbulbs due to a high CO2 footprint. On the other, we are subsidizing EVs as zero emissions. Ok, maybe "zero emissions" is obvious advertising double speak, but, for one thing... in the EPA's own case for outlawing incandesents, they said, "if every family in the US switched one 60W bulb to a 35W CFL [this was before LED] it would be like taking 800,000 cars off the road." So I wonder, how does a family, or a million, driving a 600,000W Tesla weigh on that equation? Something doesn't add up. So cynical me smells big corporate lobbiests and possible campaign contributions above the $25 gift limit.

 
  #5  
Old 03-01-2020, 10:38 PM
Unhingd's Avatar
Veteran Member
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Maryland, US
Posts: 16,939
Received 4,664 Likes on 3,369 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by RacerX
Interesting chart.
There are so many interwined goals and claims involved that need clarification, a few:
1. Are we trying to save ourselves or "the environment?" I still don't know. I can see a reasonable argument for both. Right now when I hear things like "too much CO2 and global warming" I think, you know, if I were a green plant I'd be pretty excited about that.

2. Electricity is generally treated as commodity, it's all the same, so squeezing the balloon here bulges bulges it over there. The key test for treatment as a commodity being, fungibility. So I don't think the chart maker's grid distinctions are valid, we should analyze it as a whole.

3. The EPA seems confused. On one hand, we are outlawing incandesant lightbulbs due to a high CO2 footprint. On the other, we are subsidizing EVs as zero emissions. Ok, maybe "zero emissions" is obvious advertising double speak, but, for one thing... in the EPA's own case for outlawing incandesents, they said, "if every family in the US switched one 60W bulb to a 35W CFL [this was before LED] it would be like taking 800,000 cars off the road." So I wonder, how does a family, or a million, driving a 600,000W Tesla weigh on that equation? Something doesn't add up. So cynical me smells big corporate lobbiests and possible campaign contributions above the $25 gift limit.
1. C02 emissions are just one aspect of a multi variate and complex issue causing climate change that is increasing severe weather occurrences and driving tens of thousands of species into extinction.
2. Your point regarding geographic fungibilty is valid. Unless massive investments are made to upgrade the grid with supercooled transmission lines, or localized modular nuclear plants are put in place, the situation indeed has to be considered by market.
3. Yes, Electrifying cars only makes environmental sense if power is generated from natural gas, renewable (solar, tidal, hydro, geothermal) or nuclear fuel. Biofuels are counterproductive.
 
  #6  
Old 03-01-2020, 11:41 PM
Chawumba's Avatar
Senior Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: So Cal
Posts: 800
Received 241 Likes on 173 Posts
Default

There is a funny ad they were running in California about the fuel cell Murai, and after rambling about its green credentials, the female actor asks "sure, but can I drive in the carpool lane?"

I think electric car adoption has been driven significantly by the tax incentives, rapid acceleration via instant torque (Ludicrous mode anyone?) and carpool rights rather than a sincere concern over the environment. In my opinion, lots to sort out before the grid can handle huge numbers of cars charging at night when solar is producing zero power.

That said, the Tesla roadster and its advertised 8.9 sec quarter mile does sound appealing. A Chevy Bolt or BMW i3 not so much.



 
  #7  
Old 03-02-2020, 01:05 AM
RacerX's Avatar
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Tampa, Florida
Posts: 857
Received 226 Likes on 165 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by Chawumba
There is a funny ad they were running in California about the fuel cell Murai, and after rambling about its green credentials, the female actor asks "sure, but can I drive in the carpool lane?"

I think electric car adoption has been driven significantly by the tax incentives, rapid acceleration via instant torque (Ludicrous mode anyone?) and carpool rights rather than a sincere concern over the environment. In my opinion, lots to sort out before the grid can handle huge numbers of cars charging at night when solar is producing zero power.

That said, the Tesla roadster and its advertised 8.9 sec quarter mile does sound appealing. A Chevy Bolt or BMW i3 not so much.
I agree the EV concept still doesn't seem ready for prime time. Where is the old 2020 Tesla Roadster anyway?

As far as global warming, I'm an environmentist. The demise of polluting humans paving-over our beautiful earth for profit with filthy cities, roads, parking lots, beachfront timeshares and shopping malls, then leaving behind a warm, carbon-rich environment lush with green life sounds like a perfect and just outcome to me. It can't happen soon enough.
 

Last edited by RacerX; 03-02-2020 at 02:00 AM.
  #8  
Old 03-02-2020, 02:20 PM
RGPV6S's Avatar
Veteran Member
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: USA
Posts: 1,013
Received 373 Likes on 253 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by Chawumba
There is a funny ad they were running in California about the fuel cell Murai, and after rambling about its green credentials, the female actor asks "sure, but can I drive in the carpool lane?"

I think electric car adoption has been driven significantly by the tax incentives, rapid acceleration via instant torque (Ludicrous mode anyone?) and carpool rights rather than a sincere concern over the environment. In my opinion, lots to sort out before the grid can handle huge numbers of cars charging at night when solar is producing zero power.

That said, the Tesla roadster and its advertised 8.9 sec quarter mile does sound appealing. A Chevy Bolt or BMW i3 not so much.
IMHO a lot, if not most, EV sales are driven by virtue signaling not because they are a better solution.

All the clamoring for wind and solar doesn't take into account (or ignores) that those solutions need back up fossil fuel plants to cover when the sun doesn't shine and the wind isn't blowing unless massive and currently hugely expensive energy storage technology is employed in tandem . The only solutions that would enable enough "clean" generating capacity are nuclear and hydro but the former has its own spent fuel disposal problems and the huggers fight new hydro tooth and nail.

Oops fell off the soap box. Got to go.




 
  #9  
Old 03-02-2020, 03:03 PM
RacerX's Avatar
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Tampa, Florida
Posts: 857
Received 226 Likes on 165 Posts
Default

Couldn't agree more on your virtue signaling point. Its the exact opposite of old school rebelious environmentalists who stood in general opposition to harmful corporate plunder.

Somehow, today it is virtuous to signal ones support of mega corporations limiting "green"-house gases specifically to prioritize future human comfort over green life. I'll never get it.
 
  #10  
Old 03-09-2020, 11:35 AM
RacerX's Avatar
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Tampa, Florida
Posts: 857
Received 226 Likes on 165 Posts
Default

Originally Posted by RacerX
  • We live in prosperity but history shows when prices spike upward (think cars suddenly selling for home prices) the end of that trend is near. Will EVs sell in a depressed market where prices must halve or more to survive demand destruction?
Sometimes I amaze myself. Automotive and oil prices in unprecedented free fall, but frankly, still look pretty frothy in historical context. We are now in a transition from prosperty-based luxury decisions to down and dirty necessity-based decisions. IMO EVs are in medium term trouble as are all cars that do more than move stuff around for minimum outlay.
 

Last edited by RacerX; 03-09-2020 at 12:00 PM.
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
Jaguar Forums Editor
Jaguar Press release
0
01-02-2019 04:08 PM
Jaguar Forums Editor
Jaguar Press release
0
04-07-2016 08:58 AM
Mark Scotton
X-Type ( X400 )
1
06-05-2012 03:45 AM
Disco stu55
X-Type ( X400 )
2
02-19-2010 07:48 AM

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 


Quick Reply: OT: Economist article re: EV adoption speeding up w/something for wealthy petrolheads



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:42 PM.