As soon as someone can find an inexpensive way of making hydrogen......

 

Your really drinking the old Kool-aid up there in SFO la la land.

 

That number was just tossed out there for illustration, but the result is the same.

Not to debate this too much, but from what I've read we have roughly 50-60 years of oil left in the reserves that we know about (assuming the rate of consumption doesn't dramatically change.) Obviously new supplies of oil will be found that are more expensive to reach, but those will likely be increasingly more difficult to find and extract. That will drive the cost of gasoline up, but not to the levels I was referring to.

I am talking about after that, when those new reserves are also be depleted, which is probably 50 more years down the road. Since fossil fuels are non-renewing, once they are all gone, that's it.

My assertion was that if we get to the point where we "run out" of oil, there will likely still be small reserves, but those will end up in the hands of governments, corporations, and individuals who can pay, not in the hands of the average people.

If we don't change our rate of consumption, that could easily happen within the lifetime of my grandchildren's grandchildren, since that is around 160 years or so assuming one was to give birth today, each descendant reproduces in 20 years, and that child's great-grandchild lives to 100.

In any case, with all the alternative fuels being introduced, it is unlikely that society will remain dependent on fossil fuels long enough to make any of this something to worry about. Or engines will get so fuel efficient that amount of fuel consumed will be insignificant, so consumption will be reduced either way.

But if things don't change, I don't think we'll be seeing many people driving around in internal combustion engines in 2176. I suspect that transportation in general will be very different by that time anyway.

Not to mention, all the damage that 150+ more years of dumping more and more hydrocarbons into the atmosphere will do in terms of the acceleration of global warming. So it may not matter either way.

 

Don't forget: hundreds of years of natural gas supplies if that were the only source of energy. Transportation and packaging are the only (resolvable) limitations. Fossil fuel ain't drying up anytime soon (and a bargain at $40/bbl.)

 

It's been a little over 100 years since the introduction of the Model T. Before that we were riding around in horse carriages. At the pace of technology, in 20-30 years transportation will look completely different. Pure petro ICE engines will be a thing of the past. I don't think it'll be hydrogen or natural gas. All signs point to some form of electric. Not only in terms of limited resources of oil, but the next generation will ***demand*** something much, much, much cleaner than oil. If JLR doesn't get in the game, it'll be a footnote to the Teslas of the 21st century.

 

Plus coal gasification, methane hydrate, we haven't even scratched the surface of fossil fuels. Future technology will make all these fuels clean and affordable if there is a need for them. Through entrepreneurs and capitalism, and not through any political executive order. Oil is a bargain at $40 per barrel, but we in California still pay $4.00 - $5.00 per gallon of gas because of stupid voters.

 

Hmmm, wonder were the electricity comes from? The all socket?

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/...cal-favoritism

 

A lot of it comes from coal now. Given the problems with the alternatives, more coal burning plants will be the most likely source of future electricity. Which does nothing to reduce carbon emissions and probably will in fact increase the carbon emissions over just burning gasoline.

 

Amen, but it makes Tesla owners feel better about themselves. And isn't that what really counts.

 

The nice thing about electricity is that there are many clean ways to generate it. Solar, wind, hydro, natural gas, etc. Yes, I'm sure that future tech will make fossil fuels cleaner, but the same future tech will also make generating electricity even more clean and even more efficient. It's just a losing battle for fossil fuels. No matter how you slice and dice it, the future is without fossil fuels.

Tesla is a success. Sorry but anybody who denies this is just stuck in the past. They've done something no one thought could be possible: an electric car that can compete with the best from Audi, BMW, Mercedes. This is a car people want, both greenies and just regular people. It handles well, is modern, luxurious, looks great. And yes, it serves as a green platform that will only improve. In 30 years we'll all be driving a Tesla one form or another. The writing is on the wall. All the car manufacturers are trying to catchup with Tesla. That's the future. No one is pumping money into NA V8s...

 

I live in a state that has lots of hydro and wind power generation. Also coal and natural gas. And nuclear. Problems with all of them and coal is the one that seems to be getting more play now. I seriously doubt most people will be driving electric cars in 30 years. I wouldn't invest a dime (voluntarily) in that technology. They are already wasting enough of my money (tax dollars, subsidies) on it as it is. The only bigger boondoggle than electric cars is ethanol, which takes more energy to produce than it yields.

 

In 30 years

- Major cities will be mostly electric. Why? Daily commute/trip is less than 100 miles. There is no range issue and electric cars make perfect sense. Range keeps increasing and frankly range anxiety is no longer the major obstacle as it was before.

- For the longer trips it'll be those hybrid type cars.

The writing is on the wall. It's not just Tesla. Look at what GM, Toyota, BMW, Porsche, etc. they are ALL going electric and hybrid. There is no major car company that isn't going electric and hybrid...I just don't see how you won't be driving an electric hybrid in the near future. No one will be selling traditional petro ICE cars anymore...

 

You know what they say Green is the new Red.

You will drive what the Marxists tell you you'll drive, or you may not drive at all. We'll take away your freedom all in the guise of "saving the planet".

Hopefully someday Americans will wake up to all the bullshit.

 

The auto industry does not run on 2 and 4 year cycles, politicians do. It's unfortunate the auto companies can't give a collective F**K YOU to Washington and the unelected judicial branch of our government. For the way they get jerked around.

 

The only reasonably-neutral transportation technology for the foreseeable future is/will be solar-charged electric vehicles. Lots of people on the EV forums are charging theirs with their own solar panels right now, and with refinements coming on line now and more on the near horizon, the whole EV charging/storage process is becoming more efficient and affordable. Is it perfect? No, but oil, natural gas, coal, etc. all put more carbon in the atmosphere, in varying degrees, and the extraction processes for all of them are damaging to the environment. Hydrogen has the same drawbacks as ethanol, from an extraction/production efficiency standpoint, and seawater is a finite resource, too. Nuclear fission has its own dead end, and if fusion power ever happens, it'll no doubt have its own set of problems as well. All the same pie-in-the-sky claims that were originally made for fission (clean, free, benign, etc.) are now being made for fusion, so let's wait and see if anything ever happens on that front. In the meantime we'll have to make due with what we can realistically expect to work, environmentally speaking, and right now it looks like renewable-source-charged EVs are going to be the best bet.



Well actually, I have a car magazine from 1967 around here somewhere that boldly pronounces "by 1976, there will be factory options of 600-700 hp available". Hey, they were only off by 40 years...let's go easy on them.




WARNING: The following may be unsettling/upsetting for deluded or more sensitive readers...

People. Too many people...that's the real problem. Right now there are at least three times more people on the planet than its ecosystem can support. Humanity is exhibiting all of the characteristics of a virus on this planet. We have vastly over reproduced, we're now drowning in our own filth...and we're killing our host along with us. Accelerating the process, China and India are coming online and they're going to want to have their own versions of the 1950s and 1960s. That'll be the final nail in the Earth's coffin, and all the "entrepreneurs", "hydrogen fuel cells", "natural gas", and all the other buzz words can, at best, only delay our now-inevitable "Soylent Green" future. If we had done something meaningful about over population twenty or thirty years ago, while we still had a shot at stabilizing things, everyone everywhere would now be able to drive any kind of car that they could afford without the environment even noticing. But no, sticking our heads in the sand and looking everywhere but in the mirror was less short-term painful than actually doing something about the problem, so now it's too late. Scientists, and both current and potential government leaders (at least, the ones without sand in their hair) are all aware of these facts, but you won't find any politicians who will admit to any of this in public because they want to get (re)elected. It seems folks really hate receiving bad news...human nature being what it is. Now, you can all forget about your "grandchildren's grandchildren", because I guarantee you, they are going to want to forget you for what you did to their planet.

Sorry for bringing up the turd in the punch bowl, but it's been there for quite a while now, and it just seems like no one ever notices.

 

So very true.

 

Exclusive of immigration, the U.S. is experiencing zero population growth. I don't disagree that less people might reduce the load on the environment, but I do disagree that we are doomed to the future depicted in Soylent Green, at least in the U.S. We throw away about half of our food supply here. We enjoy lower food prices in real terms than what folks were paying for food 40 years ago. Soylent Green depicts a future of food rationing and eating, well, corpses. Great flick though.

 

I do fear Dr. Manhattan is correct, which is one reason I almost want to cry when I hear people complaining about little things like eco-mode. Our grandchildren's, grandchildren will be cursing our stupidity.

 

WARNING: The following may be unsettling/upsetting for the true believers, the Degrowthers and the stupid...

But this is the biggest load of Horse Sh*t I've heard in a long time.

 

You'll never know. You will be dead.