That's what a new report says... and I have to say I'm not totally stoked on it. I love the history of the XJ, and I don't want to see it go all-electric just yet...

And as far as fighting Tesla? I think Porsche is going to start killing Tesla before anyone gets much chance to help.

 

Mmmmm perfect. The depreciation curve may stop on our V-8's.

 

Air-cooled Porsche now costs more than inflation-adjusted price when it was new. The same might happen to large ICEs when electric become the norm.

 

Tesla is still a niche market. Why would Jaguar need to "fight" them at all? A Tesla is a pedestrian car with a HUGE price tag. Jaguar has nothing to worry about. Is Tesla still losing money? I think that article writer is either a moron or working for Jag/Tesla and trying to stir the pot. Don't bank on this!

 

I can totally see that happening. It basically happened when Ferrari gave up the manual. Anything with a gated shift jumped pretty dramatically in just a few years, and they're still going up.

 

tesla will become a major worry once they figure out how to charge a battery or swap a battery in under 10 minutes.

10 minutes is generous, comparing to the 5 it takes to fill up a car. I feel like part of the reason people dont do all-electric (its one of my reasons) is the long waiting to re-charge if you're doing long distance. I do 300+ mile trips, and waiting an additional 20-30 minutes to recharge on top of my already long trip is not what i want to do.

 

I have absolutely no interest in an electric car by Jaguar or anybody else. Might as well put wheels on a refrigerator, as to me it would be about that exciting.

 

I highly doubt Jaguar would destroy their flagship vehicle by making it all-electric. I fail to see the point. Recharging these things is a nightmare for people who actually like to travel long distances. I live in Australia and so long distances between cities and major towns is the common experience. And basic physics demands that recharging will NEVER be fast and will often be painfully slow. I can refill my current car in 5 minutes. An electric car would take 5 hours at home with a 20kw connection - something I cant get anywhere else anyhow. IN outback Australia, I couldnt even get a basic 10A connection easily and waiting literally two days to recharge doesnt feel like an advantage.

A plug-in hybrid with front axle electric motors and rear petrols engines sound fabulous. Can you imagine an XJR with 575 hp at the rear and another 200hp at the front? AWD and the performance to beat almost everything. Who wouldnt want that?

The problem with Electric cars is that same it has always been - recharge time. You cant beat the physics no matter how hard you try. Jaguar might say the ipace can be recharged in 45 mins from a 100kw connection, but who has one of those besides workers at a power plant?

I would LOVE a plug-in hybrid XJR. But a fully electric one will never be in my driveway and to be honest, nobody elses either. Teslas are bought by people who have OTHER cars - petrol ones at that - for when they need to do long trips of carry big loads. They drive the Tesla to show off their fake green credentials.

 

Current electric cars are not intended for driving across the Australian outback, and similar vast distances, they are intended for the 99% of car drivers who commute to work and the shops for an hour each morning, with the occasional cross country trip to visit the in-laws. Those drivers would rarely see the charge drop below 80% more than a few times a month. That is a vast market who are being actively pushed towards adopting electric vehicles. Any manufacturer who ignores that is not going to be selling anything but niche cars or issuing profit warnings in ten years time.

There are already a fair few electric vehicles on the road (even in darkest Devon, UK, I see a couple every week and to convey how rural that is I see more people riding horses than that), yet you don't hear of any electric vehicles being stranded at the side at roads when they've run out of charge. In fact, interestingly, in recent heavy snow causing overnight road closures here people in electric cars were able to keep their heating on permanently whereas those in ICE cars had to preserve fuel. There's irony for you!

100kW single phase at home is pretty common in the UK, and 100kW three phase is standard for commercial; although it is generally underused so whilst recent decades have seen that drop to 60kW fuses being fitted the infrastructure is still installed. Charging points are appearing all over the place at service stations and at places you park (business parks, supermarkets, leisure centres/gyms, etc.)

By the time the 1% of long distance/low time/high load drivers need to change the charging and battery technology will have improved significantly. Just look at the development of mobile device batteries over the last decade. Technology doesn't stand still - it is constantly improved.

Like it or not this change will happen across all car manufacturers. Most people who buy XJs new will use them to get around in urban areas. ICE cars are going to be banned in many European cities within the next couple of decades, and the low-emission US states will follow suit if not already planning to. China will have to soon as well as they get richer and decide they don't want to die early from avoidable diseases. If you want independent travel at all in the future you will only have two choices - non-ICE, or walking/cycling.

People always dislike change, but to be honest performance of electric motors versus the ICE is not really a valid argument for most people. Longevity certainly is, but with modern software-controlled cars I doubt many will make it to an age where they would be classed as classics anyway. Come the zombie apocalypse the survivors will all be driving pre-1990 cars that can be started without a key and fixed with a hammer. With populations rising there is less and less space for each person to have a dedicated car anyway, so in 30 years+ I would not be surprised if pooled cars (likely autonomous) were the norm for urban dwellers. Countries like the US are vast outside of the bigger cities, but that is the exception not the rule. Most of the world lives in communities where a 6-bed US mansion money would buy you a city flat, or an out-of-town 3-bed semi-detached town house with space for one small car.

 

Xdave, I have to disagree with you on almost everything you wrote. I would point first of all to the fact that electric vehicle sales globally amount to 0.5% of the total after decades of people claiming that ICE vehicles would be long gone. So the buying public has made its opinion loud and clear. And even those 0.5% of sales tend to mainly go to people who also own petrol cars for when they want to travel long distances. The claim that 99% of travel is commuting is overstated and even if it weren't, the major problem with EVs is that long distance travel is IMPOSSIBLE unless you like the idea of stopping to recharge for 8-24 hours several times. If all you do is simply commute then you might as well buy a mega-cheap 4cyl buzzbox which will be a quarter the price of an EV and cheaper to run and repair.

I also read your claim about EV owners keeping their heaters on all the time while petrol cars had to turn theirs off. I dont want to be impolite, but I simply dont believe that. Electric heating is very energy heavy and petrol cars could keep their engines running for a day or more.

Not to put too fine a point on it, in the UK you live on an ISLAND where all your distances are short and where your infrastructure is very concentrated. But a lot of the world and in fact, MOST of the world is not like that. Long distances are typical and EVs simply dont cut it. You might have standard 100Kw power - although that sounds extremely and unnecessarily high for domestic use - but most of the world does not. Physics demands that recharging an EV will always be measure in hours as opposed to minutes for petrol cars.

I've been hearing claims about cities banning petrol cars for decades now, based on the ignorant belief that the world will be full of cheap and efficient electric cars, a belief that has repeatedly failed to materialise. There will be no such ban anywhere until such time as EVs are actually affordable and effective for the average consumer. At the moment ALL EVs are double the cost of comparable petrol cars. Recharge times are terrible because you cannot simply say you have a 100kw system at home because what of you want to go somewhere else where that is not available? Ever been to a petrol station with 12 pumps and they are all being used? Happens often. What do you think it will look like with 12 EVs plugged in and recharging and your typical 10 minute wait for petrol is now 8 hours?

Tesla brags that it outsold the Mercedes S Class, a claim that sounds impressive until you realise that the S class is Mercedes most expensive and lowest selling sub-group.

Jaguar would be mad to make the XJ an electric only vehicle. It will look great, perform fabulously, reviewed positively, be iconic and sell almost none. It's not like the XJ is a segment killer now, but a plug-in hybrid WOULD sell and sell very very well.

You might routinely see EVs where you live but out here in Australia, I have yet to see a single one. Not that far from me, and enterprising 'green' local council put in a recharge point for electric cars. After three years, it has never actually been used.

Replacable batteries would work. Rechargable EVs will always be very limited in their use, especially for the domestic family market and is why petrol cars will reign supreme for many decades to come.

 

As you can see from my signature, I am a petrol head, but this video struck a chord with me:


To add to that, our local council has got rid of the majority of their fleet and now use electric cars. They also no longer own the cars but rent them as and when required.

https://www.yoogoshare.co.nz/

The switch to electric will happen a lot sooner than you might think!

 

NZ is also an island - and a small one. Everything is close, plus a council doing so is meaningless because ALL their use is small distances. EVs work fine for them, but I will bet the Mayor's car is petrol.

But I will base my argument on SALES. after 20 years of trying, the EV market is still 0.5%. It is growing and in 5 years might double to 1%. The driving public is rejecting EVs in enormous numbers and the sales so far are going to the rich and to 'green' places like some councils who routinely abandon garbage collection and take on rainbow and green projects instead (side rant!). But Joe Public isnt touching them at all.

And the video is interesting, but the disruptive technologies didnt have massive limiting factors like EVs do - not to mention the shortage of lithium and the not insignificant problems of quintupling our power grid to cope with widespread EV use.

 

The used EV sales in NZ is already over 1% and growing quickly:

2014 - 0.13%
2015 - 0.18%
2016 - 0.5%
2017 - 1.1%
2018 - 1.28% (to Feb)

 

In the UK (the 6th biggest market for new car sales), and many European countries, there are heavy consumer subsidies and ongoing tax incentives for buying electric vehicles, and manufacturers also get subsidies for the first few thousand vehicles sold plus all the development costs (including infrastructure and plant). Some European governments have publically committed to banning new ICE vehicles entirely in 20 years, with existing ICE vehicles phased out over another 10 years, so those incentives are going to step up not down. China and India have made similar commitments which are more important growth markets for car manufactures than markets like Australia and the US (India has pledged to ban them in 10 years as they have terrible air pollution in their cities).

These are fairly recent incentives (<5 years old) so "decades of people claiming ICE vehicles would be gone" is not at all relevant here. Sales of non-ICE vehicles are rising by approx. 25% each year (I emphasis that is a rise, not the overall total), and make up around 5% of vehicle sales in some European cities. Norway will ban non-ICE car sales in 2025 (only 7 years away now) and already 40% of new car sales in Norway are electric or hybrid. Norway is not a tiny island, and has a larger amount of long-distance driving than places like the UK. They appear to be coping just fine.

As mentioned, I thought quite clearly?, your region is not the target market for electric vehicle sales yet, but for a car manufacturer to ignore the rest of the world for a few local markets will ensure they cease to be car manufacturers for much longer. Globally, 95% of EVs are sold in only 10 countries: China, US (varies state by state), Japan, Canada, Norway, UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden.

BTW, I didn't claim that 99% of driving was commuting so apologies if it read like that. I was saying that 99% of drivers commute to work and the shops, with occasional longer trips. i.e. most people drive their cars for short repeated journeys where they will park for 1h-8hrs or overnight, rather than salesmen-style start-stop trips.

You are approaching this one with the bias that you already know the answer without checking. There is ample case evidence of this available online and even discussed on this forum, and it is demonstrably true with nothing more than a calculator. ICE and most hybrid cars use the waste heat from the engine cooling to heat the cabin air. EVs use electric heaters (typically 1kW-2kW range when the motor is idle, and they will not be on full 100% of the time). With a half empty 85kWh battery you can sit stationary with the heater on constantly for 20 to 40 hours and still listen to the radio and have enough power to leave the road when the blockage is cleared. With a full 60L tank of petrol in a 'typical' 1.2l car you would run out of fuel in about a third of that time so you need to have periods of engine-off-time to preserve the fuel. Most people drive around with less than 1/2 tank of fuel so would get much less from their ICE car.

There is also the benefit that you won't risk death from carbon monoxide poisoning should you fall asleep and heavy snow drifts restrict clearing your exhaust fumes, but that is beside the point here.

The XJ is a very niche vehicle. They sell about 10k per year globally, and with the horrific taxes you guys pay on imported luxury cars Australia is not a significant part of that.

 

xdave: I am curious why you are on a forum like this - a forum for real cars, most of them powerful and exciting. EVs are anything but, because unless you can afford a very expensive Tesla, EVs are pretty boring and have all the magnetic animal appeal of a gold Camry.

Europe has some pretty crazy 'green ideas' and looks like their intentions on EVs are as silly and impractical as so many others. Like it or not, countries in Europe have been wanting to ban petrol cars for decades and have failed miserably. They tried putting Green Tax on aircraft a few years ago until the rest of the world told them where to shove it. Your claim about Norway's cars is incorrect as the proposed move never got going. Plus the absolute hypocrisy of such a move is apparent given that the petroleum industry is one of Norways biggest. And let;s not forget the entire German car industry which is almost entirely PETROL cars. And the French and Italians.

I also question your putting EV and hybrids in the same category as they are manifestly different. You can actually drive a hybrid anywhere you want and refuel/recharge anywhere and everyhere you want which is my biggest (and sole) complaint about EVs in the first place. I have no problem with hybrids because they are the perfect combination of two excellent technologies. The only reason I dont own one is that the choice of a Prius (yuk) and a hybrid camry (bigger yuk) is no real choice at all. A plug-in hybrid is even better because you can garner the benefits of an EV's efficiency around town and still have the petrol engines performance and flexibility. A plug-in hybrid Jaguar XJ/XJR would be a phenomonal beast and still be an actual drivers car without having to be a toy. The Panamera is already such a beast.

I maintain that recharge times on EVs are a death knell to their mass adoption because it cant be overcome. Physics simply wont let car companies get away with wonderfully BS claims like "10 minute recharge times" as long as you are connected to a 1 Megawatt connection "available at your local nuclear power station".

A previous poster seems exultant that EV sales have reached 1%. Come back when it has hit 25%. Of course by then, your local power grid will have to be doubled to handle the load.

 

Not exultant. Just pointing out that your comment that it would take another 5 years to reach 1% of sales has already been passed in NZ and we tend to be a few years behind the trend due to so many of our cars being second hand Japanese cast offs.

My commute to work is under 5 miles but my daily driver is a 5 litre supercharged car pumping out 550bhp and haven't bought a car with an engine with less than 4 litres for over 30 years so I can hardly be called an EV evangelist but I can see that the change is coming, possible not as rapidly as outlined in that video, but it will happen especially as Europe is falling out of love with the diesel.

 

Sounds like you are driving an XJR... Jealous, although hoping to emulate you later this year. My point is that I beleive that EVs will always be a minor player in the car market for the foreseeable future. Sure their uptake will increase, perhaps significantly. However, their intrinsic and deep restrictions will always keep them from dominating the market. By far the best idea is for hybrids to make the best of both worlds.

Wouldnt you love to be driving a Jaguar XJR petrol/electric hybrid? Sigh...

 

Perhaps Europe needs some "elected" leadership to oversee this "transition". LOL! Or maybe (hopefully!) they will go the other way like BrExit.

Yes I totally agree with you. Fossil powered cars will be here for the next many generations. I do foresee taxes being levied on electric vehicles as this is already in talks. Roads, bridges and other infrastructure relies on gas taxes to support. Why should electric car owners be exempt from this? I think we will very soon start to see an extra tax paid to the state for owners of electrics and even hybrids. Quite frankly, even those with very high gas mileage should pay an additional tax. Let's not forget it is the big sedan and SUV owners like us that are covering the lion's share of gas taxes. It isn't fair.

US car companies were not and never have been behind the 8 ball in hybrid and electric technology. They just looked at it and said there is no money here, and there is not. How much longer will Tesla remain in business selling cars? Are they still losing money?

I think replaceable battery packs are the only way to provide a quick "recharge". And who wants to trade in their nice new battery pack for one of questionable origin? Not to mention the proprietariness in general even within the same brand.

I also think some elements of the car industry would love to see battery powered vehicles since at some point it does not become cost effective to replace a battery pack thus ensuring more cars end up in junkyards sooner. They could not have engineered planned obsolescence any better!

 

My sincere apologies, Geoff. I incorrectly assumed this was a forum for Jaguar enthusiasts, and was not aware that the cars in my signature are only toys and not real cars. I am so ashamed - I will get rid of them immediately!

I also made the greivious error of assuming that a thread titled "XJ going all electric to fight Tesla?" might be an appropriate topic to discuss why JLR are moving into the EV market from the pov of someone who lives in the legislative environment that is driving their choices. Clearly an easy mistake to make.

 

Snarkiness is not befitting you. You made an evangelistic promotion of Electric cars so I am not sure what you expected and why pushback surprises you. My point of view has always been that EVs are terminally flawed as a complete replacement for petrol vehicles and I stand by that. Recharge time is a massive and unresolvable problem. That they will snare a significant portion of the market is quite likely, although the history for the last couple decades doesn't support that. However, they are not replacements for anyone who does a lot of miles (lots of people) or where there are not ample supply of superchargers (virtually everywhere). I still beleive that the ultimate outcome will be fuel-efficient plug-in hybrids which virtually no-one will oppose and which disenfranchises nobody either.